No Guarantee for Bitcoin's Natural Corridor of Growth

Models on Bitcoin (BTC) future behavior see the coin as following a path of appreciation over the years, potentially suggesting that future prices would follow the same trend. But new research suggests the “corridor of growth” may be an exercise in retrofitting, and not of prediction.


It is true that Bitcoin has grown over the years, but the scenario of perpetual growth, fueled by adoption and reward halvings, does not hold to statistical analysis.

The natural growth channel model, proposed by Harold Christopher Burger, fits BTC price growth into a directed, price-limited chart of growth, based on a regression of prices. The model falsification arrives a few weeks after in-depth analysis also debunked the stock-to-flow narrative.

However, this model only uses past data – and it may not hold true in the future. In fact, the model does not even work completely for past data, reveals the analysis of However, the “corridor of growth” model has been rather influential in anticipating constant bitcoin growth, despite fluctuations.

The search for models arrives at a time when bitcoin is once again seeking direction, with predictions for 2020 ranging from another all-time high, to a return to a lower tier. The channel of growth is also suggesting hopes of BTC prices at $50,000 or even $100,000.



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